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TL/DR summary

Holiday demand is strong, the calendar is stretching, and the mix keeps tilting online until the last鈥憁inute rush favors stores. Use the numbers to place inventory, pace media, and set service levels.

Key takeaways

• More consumers intend to ramp up digital buying, while late-urgency lifts in-store conversion rates.

• Shopping early is now the norm; at least half of shoppers plan to keep buying after the main events to redeem gift cards and chase the best deals.

• Generational splits matter: younger shoppers cluster around the big days; older cohorts buy earlier and steadier.

• US holiday sales are on track for a new record in 2025, so retailers who align operations to demand will grow.

Plan for a longer runway, sharper peaks, and a real Q5. Balance offers and operations so shoppers can shop online or in store with equal confidence, and let data guide how you spend, staff, and stock.

Core signals and actions

Introduction

For retailers, the question of 鈥�what percentage of holiday shopping do consumers complete online鈥� is not academic. It shapes inventory bets, fulfillment capacity, media timing, and staffing across the holiday season. In 2025, the share of transactions and product discovery that happen digitally keeps rising. At the same time, in-store remains vital for last鈥憁ile urgency and immediacy. Holiday shoppers are starting earlier, toggling across channels, and compressing decisions around Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the quieter days that follow.

Knowing the numbers is how businesses tune demand forecasts, refine marketing strategies, and make merchandising choices that match actual shopping habits, not assumptions.

Share of holiday shoppers who say they will do most or all of their holiday shopping online.

Source:

The data behind online vs in鈥憇tore holiday buying

A simple way to read this season is to follow intent. Consumers plan to do more online shopping overall, then lean back to in-store for last鈥憁inute certainty. Below, we break down the direction of travel, timing, demographics, and what these shifts mean for teams running budgets, media, and operations.

Channel Mix: Online momentum with a late in鈥憇tore tilt

Shoppers planning to increase their digital activity outnumber those planning to do the same in physical venues. At crunch time, speed and certainty pull purchases to stores.

• 37% of holiday shoppers expect to ramp up online shopping, versus 25% who expect to do the same in physical stores.

• When the final days hit, 38% make more in-store purchases; 33% buy more gift cards; and 29% narrow holiday shopping online to websites known for faster fulfillment.

Online retailers and online marketplaces should emphasize shipping speed, inventory accuracy, and pickup options. Brick-and-mortar stores should spotlight store鈥憀evel availability, extended hours, and easy returns to capture in-store holiday shopping.

What this means tactically

• Use social media to prime discovery, then anchor benefits such as same鈥慸ay pickup, curbside, and delivery cutoffs.

• Price messaging should address higher prices and higher costs transparently, paired with loyalty programs that help shoppers save money without friction.

• Expect in-store shoppers to peak as deadlines loom; position gift-giving displays and gift card fixtures near entrances to accelerate decisions.

Timing: Shopping early, then spiking around key events

The calendar is stretching on both ends, with meaningful activity before the holiday shopping season and a pronounced post鈥慹vent wave.

• 65% of holiday shoppers expect to start buying gifts before Thanksgiving Day; 22% kick off in September or earlier. Many shoppers plan to use mid鈥憏ear events to buy gifts.

• A strong post鈥慹vent period follows: more than half intend to shop after the holidays to capture end鈥憃f鈥憏ear deals; 38% plan to shop to use gift cards they received; 27% will stock up on discounted d茅cor.

Plan-to-shop triggers must cover the months leading into Q4 and the week after Christmas. Cyber Week and early December require precise inventory and staffing. Position replenishment for returns and exchanges in the days between Christmas and New Year鈥檚.

Demographics: Generational patterns you can plan against

Younger generations cluster around tent鈥憄ole promotions; older cohorts are earlier and steadier. Both groups buy, but the cadence differs.

• 59% of Gen Z plans to start before Thanksgiving, compared with 68% of baby boomers.

• Among those who start earlier, 57% of Gen Z expect to complete at least half of their shopping before Thanksgiving, versus 45% of baby boomers.

• 22% of Gen Z will hold until Black Friday to start buying; only 8% of baby boomers plan the same.

For Gen Z shoppers, creatives should lean harder into the urgency of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, mobile convenience, and fast shipping callouts. For baby boomers, emphasize reliability, service, and simple offers in the weeks prior.

Spend direction and budget sentiment

Despite mixed headlines, shoppers expect to keep spending through the holidays. 32% plan to spend more this year; 20% plan to spend less.

Planning to spend more suggests retailers can expect wider baskets in most categories when promotions are credible. Track average spend and holiday budget signals daily to avoid over鈥� or under鈥慴uying.

Market context: Multi鈥憏ear growth and a 2025 step鈥憉p

To anchor channel decisions, zoom out to the total pie.

• US holiday sales rose from $568 Bn in 2012 to $976.1 Bn in 2024.

• 2025 is expected to move past the $1 Tn mark, which is a new record for the retail industry if trendlines hold.

Why this matters

Retailers that align media, inventory, and fulfillment to the calendar beats will take share as spend grows. Cyber Monday and Black Friday will still concentrate demand, but post鈥慹vent Q5 can be equally valuable for clearing holiday purchases and capturing exchanges.

Practical implications for 2025 strategy-making

Link the numbers to action.

• Merchandising and inventory: Buy gifts and holiday gift assortments earlier; stage safety stock for late pickup. Balance store and DC capacity to serve both shopping online and in-store shopping surges.

• Pricing and promos: Shoppers expect credible deals. Plan to use promotional ladders that reward loyalty without margin shocks. Calibrate messaging for us consumers who comparison鈥憇hop across online marketplaces and department stores.

• Media and SEO: Social media remains a core discovery engine. Consider generative engine optimization alongside classic search to surface offers where most shoppers research. Use AI-powered tools and selective AI tools to test copy, then keep human oversight. If you experiment with gen ai, keep governance tight.

• Operations: Offer click鈥慳nd鈥慶ollect and ship鈥慺rom鈥憇tore to let consumers shop online and finish in-store. Communicate cutoffs clearly in early December. Many retailers will benefit from better slotting and labor models in-store as late traffic arrives.

• Customer programs: Loyalty programs reduce friction and help balance higher prices with value perception. Make returns effortless to convert gift recipients into repeat shoppers.

Closing remarks for leaders

The direction of travel is unambiguous. Digital keeps expanding, stores become the deadline hero, and shoppers move earlier while still leaning hard on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the week that follows. Treat channels as one system. Let stores, DCs, and media reinforce each other as shoppers plan, compare, and buy.

If your teams keep the calendar, the cohort nuances, and the fulfillment promise aligned, this holiday season can convert intent into durable relationships that outlast the holidays themselves.

Research Source: